As I scrolled through Yahoo’s ADPs looking for the perfect candidates to determine the future of this fantasy football season, a few high-risk early-round center backs stuck out like sore thumbs.
It’s fair to say that a quarterback like Anthony Richardson is a make-or-break candidate given his limited ADP and experience, but the improvement in speed gives him a solid foundation and ensures he’ll finish as QB1 if he stays healthy.
A receiver like Garrett Wilson is a risk with a Round 1 ADP despite never finishing higher than W3 in points per game average, but even at 40 years old and coming off a major injury, Aaron Rodgers elevates Wilson into a strong WR1 candidate.
The ADP of tight ends overall has been declining, meaning losing a tight end doesn’t really have a detrimental impact on the season.
The running backs with the highest volatility combined with their ADP will dictate your fantasy season, but which running backs are the best? CORRECT the player who determines the success or failure of the fantasy world in 2024?
Kyren Williams, center back, Los Angeles Rams
I was contemplating whether or not to draft Williams because if you’ve been following my work with Yahoo this preseason, you know I was a firm believer in Williams as a Round 2 pick. Just as I was considering drafting him, Sean McVay announced that Williams would be returning punts this season and sent fantasy football managers into a spiral of doom and gloom and “I told you so.”
When the NFL changed the rules on punt returns, we expected some potential big names to try their hand at returning. However, the idea of returning punts for a 5-9, 194-pound player feels like malpractice … or punishment. Williams is no stranger to returning punts, but the unnecessary contact does raise some concerns. To be clear, though, fantasy managers shouldn’t take this as an indication that Williams has lost his job. McVay’s actual quote reads:
“It’s another opportunity for him to touch the ball and impact the game. And you feel comfortable with that because of the confidence in Blake Corum and Ronnie Rivers to be able to fill in if needed.”
Worrying, but not Cam Akers level disturbing.
It sounds like McVay just wants to use Williams in creative ways and it’s a great reminder that we haven’t really seen any relevant Rams running backs in the preseason. We really don’t know what the workload is going to be. The Rams have avoided using any core or fringe players in the preseason. Even players like Tutu Atwell haven’t seen any use in the preseason. Neither Williams, Corum nor Rivers have played in the preseason. That means we’re going into the season without seeing anything and just trusting Williams to maintain his role.
Again, I believe Williams will be the Rams’ clear RB1 and improve as long as he stays on the field. However, Williams is the pick that will dictate the direction of your fantasy season. Williams has over 1,100 rushing yards, averaging five yards per carry with 12 rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns in just 12 games. If he repeats that performance, he is the best option at the running back position behind Christian McCaffrey. He will either carry you to the playoffs or cost you your draft waiver for a new RB1. There is no in between.
De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
Achane is very similar to Williams in that he is a smaller running back with an injury history and a high ADP. The difference between the two running backs is that Williams is considered a clear RB1 in 2023. Achane was not a starter for the Dolphins in 2023, and we have no indication that he will be a clear RB1 in 2024.
Achane’s ADP is a profitable play. When you have the impact on fantasy football that Achane had in 2023, you get a higher ADP. However, the fact remains that Raheem Mostert was still a key part of the Dolphins’ offense and finished as the overall RB2 in half PPR and RB3 in points per game. It’s important to note that Achane’s high ADP didn’t just come out of nowhere. Achane was the RB4 in points per game last season — yes, the Dolphins produced two top-five running backs.
When you dive deeper into the individual stats, it becomes clear why Achane is a top pick for fantasy managers heading into 2024. Mostert has the better volume stats, but Achane has 7.8 yards per attempt, 21 rushes of 20+ yards compared to Mostert’s 12 and a higher fantasy points per snap ratio. Achane is more explosive and more productive. Mostert is still very good but Achane’s stats are unreal.
Achane’s potential is sky-high, but it remains to be seen whether he can carry the entire season. With a limited Round 2 ADP and no clear RB1 role, Achane has the potential to be the most “make or break” player in 2024.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
When you look at Robinson’s 2023 overall finishes of RB9 in half-PPR and RB17 in points per game average, you are very encouraged by his potential in 2024. Robinson has already passed Arthur Smith (my personal arch enemy) and has a true overall RB1 ceiling.
Robinson is in a perfect situation to make a big move and justify his ADP. Kirk Cousins is not a threat at the line of scrimmage. The Falcons have arguably the easiest schedule in the entire league and should play a positive game script that favors Robinson and provides plenty of opportunities at the line of scrimmage.
On the other hand, if you compare Robinson to his fellow Round 1 running backs, he is clearly the most likely candidate to break through his ceiling. Christian McCaffrey was a reigning RB1 with multiple top-three finishes. After four games back from an ACL injury, Breece Hall was the overall RB2 from Week 5 through the rest of the season. Jonathan Taylor also had an overall RB1 season.
I am 100% confident that Robinson will provide solid value at his ADP, but I recognize that Robinson is a very important player and can either carry you to the playoffs or frustrate and disappoint you.
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